EVs Leading the Charge for Cleaner Air in the Bay Area
Written by Keith Nickolaus, CRBA Writers Team
EV adoptions in the Bay Area far outpace the national average. Now a recent study by researchers at UC Berkeley suggests electric vehicles are having a positive impact on CO2 levels. This blog post examines the study's results and highlights implications for larger efforts to combat global warming.
“We show from atmospheric measurements that adoption of electric vehicles is working, that it’s having the intended effect on CO2 emissions.”
As the world is inundated with news about heat waves, sea-level rise, wildfires, and apocalyptic floods, it’s important to get perspective on ways tangible changes on the local front can help make a difference. In this post we take a moment to celebrate some progress in Bay Area efforts to reduce carbon emissions, so our members can savor a little bit of good news and stay focused on important priorities for local action in the present moment.
So what’s the good news? First, UC Berkeley researchers are documenting significant CO2 reductions in Bay Area emissions thanks to EVs! Meanwhile, San Francisco recently earned the distinction of becoming the first major US city where EVs and hybrids are surpassing gasoline-powered vehicles when it comes to new vehicle purchases, a positive trend as the City marches toward meeting its own ambitious EV targets.
EVs Driving GHG Reductions in the Region
Have you noticed the proliferation of Tesla sedans and other EVs around town? You’d be inclined to think growing EV adoption would make a real dent in carbon emissions, but is that true, or just hopeful thinking?
Thanks to a study from the UC Berkeley College of Chemistry, we have a scientifically formulated opinion on the matter. The verdict? EV adoption really is helping turn the tide, reducing CO2 emissions in the Bay Area, a win for air quality and for combatting global warming.
Connecting the Dots: EV Adoption Rates & Reduced CO2 Emissions
In 2012, UC Berkeley professor of chemistry Ronald Cohen began putting up a network of air quality sensors across the Bay Area, now made up of more than 80 sensor stations up and down the East Bay Hwy 80 corridor from San Leandro to Vallejo and beyond, including seven stations in San Francisco as well.
A map showing the locations of some of the sensor nodes of the BEACO2N network. The network now consists of more than 80 nodes. Map: Naomi Asimow and Ronald Cohen, UC Berkeley.
These networked air quality sensors constitute the Berkeley Environmental Air Quality and CO2 Network (BEACO2N):
BEACO2N is a new strategy for understanding greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air quality at street level in near real time, giving pedestrians, companies, and policy-makers unique insight into their GHG emissions and air quality experiences… Although our individual nodes are less precise than the highly sensitive traditional sensors, when working as part of a network, our nodes create a highly detailed map of CO2 and pollutants in our air… The data provides a clear route to evaluating the effectiveness of local and regional efforts to reduce GHG emissions, improve air quality, improve environmental equity and reduce the detrimental effects of emissions on public health.
What researchers found…
Tracking data from the sensor network, UC Berkeley professor Ronald Cohen, along with Naomi Asimow, a graduate student with the university’s Department of Earth and Planetary Science, found that 57 of the sensors were recording slow but steady GHG reductions adding up to about 1.8% annual CO2 emissions.
The researchers calculate that the 1.8% overall emissions reduction reflects a 2.6% drop in emissions from vehicles, or “2.6% less CO2 per mile driven each year," according to Asimow, a change coinciding, it turns out, with the Bay Area’s exceptionally rapid rate of EV adoption.
“Looking at California data for electric vehicle adoption — which is very high in the Bay Area — Cohen and graduate student Naomi Asimow concluded that the decrease was due to passenger vehicle electrification.”
A Pendulum Swing Favoring EVs
In related news, new vehicle registration data for San Francisco recently marked a significant milestone, with EV registrations surpassing those for gas-powered vehicles.
According to a report by S&P Global Mobility, the adoption rate for electric and hybrid vehicles in San Francisco is on a steady uptrend, is three to four times the national average, and hit a benchmark of 53% of new vehicle registrations as of April 2024.
“Last year, electric-vehicle sales encompassed 37% of all new vehicle sales in San Francisco, four times higher than any other U.S. county, according to the San Francisco Environment Department.”
If the UCB researchers were right to attribute vehicle emission reductions to existing emission decreases measured between 2012 and 2018, then the more recent increases in EV purchases in the Bay Area should be putting an even bigger dent in CO2 emissions. Furthermore, urban areas like San Francisco are estimated to contribute to about 70% of GHGs globally, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, and in SF and other big cities the majority of carbon emissions are from gas and electricity used in buildings and from fuel used in cars and trucks.
UC Berkeley graduate students Naomi Asimow and Milan Patel service a BEACO2N node atop a school roof in eastern Richmond. Photo: Krystyna Koziol and courtesy of Berkeley College of Chemistry
Putting Favorable Data into Context
While we should be celebrating the rapid uptick in EV adoption rates, better air quality, and reduced GHG emissions, you may also wonder how much impact all this really makes in the larger push to combat global warming.
Let’s start with the 1.8% annual GHG emissions tracked with the networked sensors around the Bay Area. In the context of California’s ambitious emission reduction targets, there’s way more that needs to be accomplished according to graduate student researcher Naomi Asimow:
California has set this goal for net zero emissions by 2045, and the goal is for 85% of the reduction to come from actual reduction of emissions, as opposed to direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. What we report is around half as fast as we need to go to get to net zero emissions by 2045… We're at 1.8% per year today. To get to the state's goal, we would need 3.7%... So it's not crazy higher than where we are; we're almost half of the way to that goal. But we have to sustain that for another 20 years.
And, while the city of San Francisco is leading the charge in new EV registration rates, the pace of EV adoption nationwide is three or four times lower overall, according to recent reporting by Axios. The same report also noted that despite the tilt toward EVs in new car purchases in San Francisco, 83% of all registered vehicles in the city were still gasoline powered, as of the end of 2023.
San Francisco’s Carbon Footprint
On the local front, the big picture also offers some compelling good news. For example, San Francisco has significantly reduced its carbon footprint over the past five years, and today’s carbon emissions are lower than they were a decade or more ago, despite increases in population and GDP:
Between 1990 and 2022, San Francisco’s carbon footprint was reduced by 48% while population increased 12% and the GDP (gross domestic product) increased 226%.
All of this is a reminder that positive change is achievable, but also points to the urgent need to focus local action on electrification and clean energy — especially in our densely populated San Francisco Bay Area. With more solar capacity in the state there should be more opportunities to shift away from gasoline and accelerate building electrification.
A Reminder That Cities Are Key to Climate Change
Just as cities are key contributors to climate change, responsible for roughly 70% of global CO2 emissions, it’s worth considering that those of us residing in large urban areas may hold the keys to combatting climate change…We also use keys to start our vehicles and to unlock doors to our homes and offices. Since transport and buildings are responsible for most urban emissions, next time you pick up a set of keys, think about what changes are in your power…
Using clean public transportation and driving less?
Switching to an all-electric vehicle when a vehicle is needed?
Advocating for better public transportation and ridership incentives?
Electrifying our homes, offices, and light industrial facilities?
All are steps we can take to shrink carbon footprints in our cities.
Did anything in this post surprise you or encourage you?
When it comes to electrification, public transportation, and EVs, what changes are you committing to or what advice do you have for other readers from your own experiences with EVs, home electrification, or getting out of your car and into pubic transportation?
Please share your comments below!
For further reading or reference, here are sources we used for this blog post:
EVs are lowering Bay Area's carbon footprint | College of Chemistry
San Francisco Bay Area hits electrified vehicle milestone
Electric vehicles already curbing SF Bay Area emissions | Climate | sfexaminer.com